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Research market predicts Obama comes out on top in 2012

BY DI STAFF | JULY 08, 2011 7:20 AM

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Trading numbers from the Iowa Electronic Markets’ 2012 presidential-election prediction indicated Thursday morning President Obama had a leading chance to be re-elected, according to a press release.

The real-money prediction market, operated by researchers at the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business, set the Democratic contract at 57.2 percent on the Winner Take All markets of 9 a.m. Thursday.

The Republican contract was selling for 42.7 cents, indicating the eventual GOP nominee has a 42.7 percent probability to win the 2012 general election.

Contracts for candidates who receive the most popular votes pay $1, but losing contracts pay nothing. The presidential-election market opened July 1.

The release said the market, which opened in 1988, is a research tool with a prediction record often superior to opinion polls.

— by Nina Earnest


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